洛杉矶时报:特朗普的关税政策,将推动 iPhone 价格暴涨
作者：微信文章原文标题：Trump's tariffs could make Apple's iPhone more expensive
iPhone 是一款典型的 21 世纪产品——它在加利福尼亚的设计与创造，现已深深融入全球经济之中。
苹果公司大部分 iPhone 都是在中国、印度、越南等国家制造的。总的来说，这家科技巨头表示，它依赖于超过 50 个国家和地区，将 AirPods、iPad 和 MacBook 等产品送到消费者手中。
然而，现在，这个全球供应链正遭遇重创。
本周，特朗普总统表示，他将在周六对所有国家的进口商品征收 10% 的基本关税。特朗普政府还对中国征收了 34% 的关税，对越南征收了 46% 的关税，并对印度征收了 26% 的关税。
夏威夷大学的亚洲研究教授埃里克·哈威特（Eric Harwit）表示：“苹果无处可藏。无论他们在何处制造技术，他们都会受到影响，成本会增加。”
特朗普的广泛关税政策动摇了投资者的信心，也影响了全球一些最有价值的科技公司，这些公司推动了全球经济的发展，并促进了硅谷的增长。关税政策也引发了关于这些全球企业是否会将更高的成本转嫁给消费者，或者裁减员工的问题。
苹果公司受到的打击尤其严重。周四，苹果的股价暴跌了超过 9%，周五又下跌了 7%，收盘价为 188.38 美元。
包括谷歌母公司 Alphabet、Meta、芯片制造商 Nvidia 和亚马逊在内的其他科技巨头的股价也大幅下跌，导致科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在周五下跌了 5.8%，比去年 12 月的纪录低了超过 20%。
分析人士表示，这种不安反映了投资者的担忧，即关税可能会造成持久的损害，可能使美国科技行业更难在全球竞争并主导人工智能技术的部署。
关税预计也将推高消费电子产品的成本，包括 iPhone，因为生产这些产品的成本将变得更高。
“科技已经渗透到日常生活中，这些关税是对消费电子产品的攻击”，进步商会（Chamber of Progress）技术政策副总裁托德·奥博伊尔表示。“这些是对我们购买的所有东西的攻击，其中包括任何带有全球供应链的外国零部件。”
关税可能导致消费者为一部大约 1000 美元的 iPhone 支付高达 2500 美元的额外费用，具体取决于型号。
Meta、亚马逊和 Alphabet 也生产消费电子产品，但它们每年从其他国家品牌购买的广告中赚取数十亿美元，一些分析人士认为，如果这些广告商减少支出，收入也可能会下降。
Meta 拒绝评论，但其年度报告中提到，关税或贸易争端可能导致其在中国的广告收入下降。该公司还在越南扩大了其混合现实头戴设备的生产。
Alphabet——生产手机、耳机、智能音响等消费电子产品——也提到过关税作为制造和供应链风险之一，可能会对其业务造成伤害。该公司未对评论请求作出回应。
白宫表示，征收关税是因为它希望将更多的制造业工作岗位带回美国。
特朗普在他的行政命令中表示，过度依赖外国生产商可能会威胁经济安全，因为“使美国供应链易受地缘政治干扰和供应冲击的威胁”，他说。
白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）表示：“这些‘美国优先’的经济政策在他第一任期内带来了历史性的就业、工资和投资增长，而从主街到华尔街，大家都将在特朗普总统确保我们国家经济未来的过程中继续繁荣。”
他还提到了一些公司，如台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）和苹果公司，最近宣布在美国建设更多的制造厂，投资数十亿美元。
科技行业一直在为特朗普所称的“解放日”（Liberation Day）做好准备，预计会有更多关税出台。
特朗普政府已经对某些汽车零部件、进口铝和钢铁征收了关税，这些材料是科技公司用来建立存储和管理计算机硬件与设备的数据中心所需的。
该政府将这些材料（以及铜）从最新的关税中排除。为电子产品和人工智能系统提供动力的半导体也被排除在白宫所谓的“对等关税”之外。
科技公司如何应对关税带来的成本仍然不明朗。虽然特朗普希望企业将制造业转移回美国，但它们也可能将生产转移到关税较低的地方。企业建立新工厂可能需要数年时间。
这些关税也有可能不会长期持续。
在特朗普的第一任期内，苹果曾获得中国进口商品的关税豁免，部分产品（包括其智能手表）没有被征税。特朗普在第二任期的关税政策已经远远超出了中国，影响了更多的国家。
南加州大学马歇尔商学院兰道尔·R·肯德里克全球供应链研究所创始主任尼克·维亚斯（Nick Vyas）表示，特朗普政府正向企业传达这样一个信号，即仅仅将生产转移到中国以外的地方是不够的。
他表示：“‘我为你们开放市场的每一美元，你们必须以同等程度为我开放市场。’”
一些科技公司确实已开始将更多的制造带回美国。
其中包括位于圣克拉拉的芯片制造商 Nvidia，作为全球最有价值的公司之一。
虽然由于半导体的豁免，Nvidia 似乎不会受到关税的主要冲击，但一些行业观察人士表示，更多的关税仍可能会到来。
特朗普周四告诉记者，回答是否排除对芯片征收关税时表示，“芯片很快就会开始。”
Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋在上个月与分析师的问答中表示：“我们在很多地方都在制造，我们可以调整生产地点。短期内，关税对我们影响不大。长期来看，我们会在美国本土进行制造。”
苹果公司在 2 月份表示，它将在美国投资 5000 亿美元，这笔资金将用于多个项目，其中包括在休斯顿开设一个制造工厂。
公司在其年度报告中表示，“几乎所有”制造都由位于中国、印度、日本、韩国和越南的合作伙伴完成。
将 iPhone 和其他苹果产品的生产地点转移并不容易。
哈威特表示，中国拥有能够满足苹果产品高质量规格的工程师，而美国没有那么多拥有这些相同技能的工程师。
“正是苹果在多年的发展中积累的制造专业技能，使得苹果很难放弃中国，美国也很难找到能够满足苹果需求的熟练工人”，他补充道。
Wedbush Securities 的董事总经理丹尼尔·艾夫斯（Daniel Ives）表示，要将苹果的供应链的 10% 从亚洲转移到美国，苹果需要三年时间和 300 亿美元。而且，iPhone 的价格将上涨到 3500 美元，他估计。
艾夫斯称：“如果苹果和整个科技供应链转移到美国，那是一个幻想的故事，除非你喜欢 3500 美元的 iPhone、2500 美元的电视和 300 美元的 AirPods”。
The iPhone is a quintessentially 21st century product — Californian in its creation and design and now enmeshed in the global economy.
Apple makes most of its iPhones in China, though in recent years the Cupertino-based company has made more of its products in India, Vietnam and other nations. In all, the tech giant says it relies on more than 50 countries and regions to put AirPods, iPads and MacBooks in the hands of consumers.
Now, that global supply chain is under siege.
This week, President Trump said he would impose a baseline 10% tariff on imports from all countries on Saturday. His administration also added tariffs of 34% on China, 46% on Vietnam and 26% on India.
“Apple has nowhere to hide,” said Eric Harwit, professor of Asian studies at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. “No matter where they’re making their technology, they’re going to be suffering, they’re going to see higher costs.”
Trump’s sweeping tariffs have rattled both investors and some of the world’s most valuable tech companies that have fueled the global economy and Silicon Valley’s growth. They’ve also raised questions about whether these global businesses will pass the higher costs onto consumers or slash their payrolls.
Apple has been especially hard hit. Its stock plunged more than 9% on Thursday and dropped another 7% on Friday to close at $188.38.
Share prices of other tech titans, including Google’s parent company Alphabet, Meta, chipmaker Nvidia and Amazon, also saw big declines, causing the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite to fall 5.8% on Friday — more than 20% below its record set in December.
The unease reflects worries among investors that the tariffs could cause lasting damage, potentially making it harder for the U.S. tech industry to compete globally and dominate the race to deploy artificial intelligence technology, analysts said.
The duties also are expected to drive up the costs of consumer electronics, including the iPhone, as products become more expensive to produce.
“Technology pervades everyday life and these tariffs are attacks on consumer electronics,” said Todd O’Boyle, vice president of technology policy at the Chamber of Progress, a trade group. “They’re attacks on everything that we buy and that includes any foreign parts with global supply chains.”
The levies could cause consumers to pay as much as $2,500 more for an iPhone, which costs roughly $1,000, depending on the model.
Apple did not respond to a request for comment.
Meta, Amazon and Alphabet also produce consumer gadgets but make billions of dollars annually from ads purchased by brands in other countries, which someanalysts say could also drop if these advertisers pull back spending.
Meta declined to comment, but its annual report cites the possibility that tariffs or a trade dispute could result in a drop of its China-based ad revenue. The company has also expanded production of its mixed reality headsets inVietnam.
Alphabet — which makes phones, earbuds, smart speakers and other consumer electronics — also has cited tariffs among the manufacturing and supply chain risks that could harm its business. It did not respond to a request for comment.
The White House said it’s imposing tariffs because it wants to shift more manufacturing jobs back to America.
Relying too much on foreign producers could threaten economic security by “rendering U.S. supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical disruption and supply shocks,” Trump said in his executive order.
“These America First economic policies delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and everyone from Main Street to Wall Street is again going to thrive as President Trump secures our nation’s economic future,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai.
He cited recent multibillion-dollar commitments made by companies such as the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Apple to build more manufacturing plants in the United States.
The tech industry has been bracing for more tariffs ahead of what the president dubbed “Liberation Day.”
The Trump administration already imposed tariffs on certain auto parts and imported aluminum and steel, materials that tech companies use to build data centers that store and manage computer hardware and equipment.
The administration spared those materials, along with copper, from its latest tariffs. Semiconductors that power electronics and AI systems also were excluded from what the White House dubbed “reciprocal tariffs.”
Exactly how tech companies will respond to the costs of tariffs is still unclear. While Trump wants businesses to shift manufacturing back to the United States, they could also move production to places with lower tariff rates. It would take years for businesses to build new factories.
It’s also possible these tariffs will not remain.
During Trump’s first term,Apple got exemptions from tariffs imposed on imports from China for some of its products including its smartwatch. Trump’s tariffs in his second term go well beyond China, affecting more countries.
Nick Vyas, founding director of the Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute at USC’s Marshall School of Business, said the Trump administration is signaling to businesses that simply shifting production to places outside China isn’t enough.
“‘Every dollar that I open up my market for you, I need you to open up the market for me the same degree,’” he said, describing Trump’s thinking.
Some tech companies have made efforts to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S.
Among them is Santa Clara-based chipmaker Nvidia, one of the world’s most valuable companies.
While it appears Nvidia would be spared from the brunt of the tariffs because of the exemption to semiconductors, some industry observers said more tariffs could still be coming.
Trumptold reporters on Thursday that “chips are starting very soon” when asked if tariffs for chips are off the table.
“We’re manufacturing in so many different places. We could shift things around,” Nvidia’s Chief Executive Jensen Huang said at a Q&A with analysts last month. “Tariffs will have a little impact for us short term. Long term, we’re going to have manufacturing onshore.”
Apple in February said it would invest $500 billion in the U.S. that would go toward various efforts, including opening a manufacturing facility in Houston.
The company said in its annual report that “substantially all” of its manufacturing is done by partners primarily located in China, India, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.
Shifting where iPhones and other Apple products are made is not easy.
China has engineers who can meet the high quality specifications on Apple products and the U.S. doesn’t have that great a number of engineers with those same skills, Harwit said.
“It’s really that level of manufacturing expertise that Apple developed over many years that make it very difficult for Apple to give up on China and for the U.S. to find the skilled workers really needed in the United States to meet their needs,” he added.
Daniel Ives, a managing director at Wedbush Securities, said that it would take Apple three years and $30 billion to move just 10% of their supply chain from Asia to the U.S. Plus, the iPhone’s price tag would increase to $3,500, he estimated.
“The chances that Apple and the overall tech supply chain moves to the U.S. is a fantasy, fictional tale, unless you like $3,500 iPhones, $2,500 TVs and $300 AirPods,” Ives said.
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