德意志银行：欧元货币的抛售远未结束 欧元兑美元会跌到0.85

黯然浪子

德意志银行：欧元货币的抛售远未结束 欧元兑美元会跌到0.85

北京时间3月11日晚间消息，早些时候，欧元兑美元的汇率下跌到了1.0714，创下了自2003年4月份以来的最低点。周二的亏损进一步加深了欧元的熊市局面，自2014年5月份1.4000的高点以来，欧元兑美元的汇率已经下跌了23%。

那么，欧元的疲软原因何在？

在一份最新发布的研究报告中，德意志银行的罗宾温克勒(Robin Winkler)和乔治萨拉维罗斯(George Saravelos)重申了他们的“欧元过剩”(Euroglut)观点。简单说来，这个观点认为，欧元区现有的丰裕的账户结余，再加上欧洲央行的量化宽松计划，以及负利率的影响，这些因素会导致欧元继续下跌。

温克勒和萨拉维罗斯说道，欧元区目前是世界其它地区的债务人，要成为一个净债权人，欧元区的国际投资位需达到GDP30%的水平(现今欧元区的国际投资为GDP的-10%)，之后其账户盈余才能回到一个可持续的平衡水平。而这一切只有在欧元区达到至少4万亿欧元的净资本外流量后才会发生。

这对欧元区来说意味着什么？

我们会继续看到广泛的欧元疲软。在过去的六个月内，欧元区的资本外流量甚至要大于我们最初的高预期，因此我们把欧元/美元的汇率预期调得更低了。我们预计，到今年年底，欧元兑美元会达到平价(1.00)，到2017年的时候将会创下新一周期的最低值0.85。

这也就是说，欧元货币的抛售远未结束。（翊海）

黯然浪子

路透社的报道是这么写的

(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday it expects the euro to fall to parity with the dollar as early as the end of this year, and it forecast the single currency would drop to just 85 cents per euro for 2017.

Germany's biggest bank, the world's second-largest currency trader, had led the way last year in forecasting a devaluation of the euro, saying it expected a huge outflow of investment from Europe in the next two years.

But Deutsche analyst George Saravelos said the age of "Euroglut" has progressed faster than he expected. In a Euroglut, Europe's savings and the money brought in by Germany's large trade surplus pile up and get exchanged for higher-yielding currencies.

"European outflows have been even bigger than our initial expectations over the last six months," he wrote. "We now foresee a move down (for the euro) to $1.00 by the end of the year and a new cycle low of 85 cents by 2017."

Deutsche's previous forecast was for the euro to reach parity by the end of next year and 95 cents in 2017.

Reuters polling as recently as last week showed most banks expected the euro to fall to around $1.08 over the next 12 months. But a new bout of dollar buying since last Thursday has since taken it as low as $1.06995. (Reporting by Patrick Graham; Editing by Larry King)

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